From MFKP_wiki

Jump to: navigation, search

Droughts, floods, and wildfire

M. F. Wehner, J. R. Arnold, T. Knutson, K. E. Kunkel, A. N. LeGrande

edited by: D. J. Wuebbles, D. W. Fahey, K. A. Hibbard, D. J. Dokken, B. C. Stewart, T. K. Maycock

Excerpt (Disclaimer)


The following text is a small excerpt from the original publication. Within the general INRMM-MiD goal of indexing useful meta-information on INRMM related publications, this excerpt is intended as a handy summary of some potentially interesting aspects of the publication. However, the excerpt is surely incomplete and some key aspects may be missing or their correct interpretation may require the full publication to be carefully read. Please, refer to the full publication for any detail.


Key findings.
1 ▹ Recent droughts and associated heat waves have reached record intensity in some regions of the United States; however, by geographical scale and duration, the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s remains the benchmark drought and extreme heat event in the historical record (very high confidence). While by some measures drought has decreased over much of the continental United States in association with long-term increases in precipitation, neither the precipitation increases nor inferred drought decreases have been confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing.
2 ▹ The human effect on recent major U.S. droughts is complicated. Little evidence is found for a human influence on observed precipitation deficits, but much evidence is found for a human influence on surface soil moisture deficits due to increased evapotranspiration caused by higher temperatures. (High confidence)
3 ▹ Future decreases in surface (top 10 cm) soil moisture from anthropogenic forcing over most of the United States are likely as the climate warms under higher scenarios. (Medium confidence)
4 ▹ Substantial reductions in western U.S. winter and spring snowpack are projected as the climate warms. Earlier spring melt and reduced snow water equivalent have been formally attributed to human-induced warming (high confidence) and will very likely be exacerbated as the climate continues to warm (very high confidence). Under higher scenarios, and assuming no change to current water resources management, chronic, long-duration hydrological drought is increasingly possible by the end of this century (very high confidence).
5 ▹ Detectable changes in some classes of flood frequency have occurred in parts of the United States and are a mix of increases and decreases. Extreme precipitation, one of the controlling factors in flood statistics, is observed to have generally increased and is projected to continue to do so across the United States in a warming atmosphere. However, formal attribution approaches have not established a significant connection of increased riverine flooding to human-induced climate change, and the timing of any emergence of a future detectable anthropogenic change in flooding is unclear. (Medium confidence)
6 ▹ The incidence of large forest fires in the western United States and Alaska has increased since the early 1980s (high confidence) and is projected to further increase in those regions as the climate warms, with profound changes to certain ecosystems (medium confidence).

In Climate science special report: fourth national climate assessment, volume I (2017), pp. 231-253, 
Key: INRMM:14539498



Article-Level Metrics (Altmetrics)
Digital Object Identifier

Available versions (may include free-access full text)

DOI,…, Pubget, PubMed (Search)

Further search for available versions

Search in ResearchGate (or try with a fuzzier search in ResearchGate)
Search in Mendeley (or try with a fuzzier search in Mendeley)

Publication metadata

Bibtex, RIS, RSS/XML feed, Json, Dublin Core
Metadata search: CrossRef DOI, DataCite DOI

Digital preservation of this INRMM-MiD record

Internet Archive

Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD).
This database integrates a dedicated meta-information database in CiteULike (the CiteULike INRMM Group) with the meta-information available in Google Scholar, CrossRef and DataCite. The Altmetric database with Article-Level Metrics is also harvested. Part of the provided semantic content (machine-readable) is made even human-readable thanks to the DCMI Dublin Core viewer. Digital preservation of the meta-information indexed within the INRMM-MiD publication records is implemented thanks to the Internet Archive.
The library of INRMM related pubblications may be quickly accessed with the following links.
Search within the whole INRMM meta-information database:
Search only within the INRMM-MiD publication records:
Full-text and abstracts of the publications indexed by the INRMM meta-information database are copyrighted by the respective publishers/authors. They are subject to all applicable copyright protection. The conditions of use of each indexed publication is defined by its copyright owner. Please, be aware that the indexed meta-information entirely relies on voluntary work and constitutes a quite incomplete and not homogeneous work-in-progress.
INRMM-MiD was experimentally established by the Maieutike Research Initiative in 2008 and then improved with the help of several volunteers (with a major technical upgrade in 2011). This new integrated interface is operational since 2014.