From MFKP_wiki

Jump to: navigation, search


Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

Patrick T. Brown, Ken Caldeira

Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (−1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.


Nature, Vol. 552, No. 7683. (6 December 2017), pp. 45-50, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature24672 
Key: INRMM:14504846

Keywords

               

Article-Level Metrics (Altmetrics)
Digital Object Identifier


Available versions (may include free-access full text)

DOI, Pubget, PubMed (Search)

Versions of the publication are also available in Google Scholar.
Google Scholar code: GScluster:3230527946576929

Works citing this publication (including grey literature)

An updated list of who cited this publication is available in Google Scholar.
Google Scholar code: GScites:3230527946576929

Further search for available versions

Search in ResearchGate (or try with a fuzzier search in ResearchGate)
Search in Mendeley (or try with a fuzzier search in Mendeley)

Publication metadata

Bibtex, RIS, RSS/XML feed, Json, Dublin Core
Metadata search: CrossRef DOI, DataCite DOI

Digital preservation of this INRMM-MiD record

Internet Archive

Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD).
This database integrates a dedicated meta-information database in CiteULike (the CiteULike INRMM Group) with the meta-information available in Google Scholar, CrossRef and DataCite. The Altmetric database with Article-Level Metrics is also harvested. Part of the provided semantic content (machine-readable) is made even human-readable thanks to the DCMI Dublin Core viewer. Digital preservation of the meta-information indexed within the INRMM-MiD publication records is implemented thanks to the Internet Archive.
The library of INRMM related pubblications may be quickly accessed with the following links.
Search within the whole INRMM meta-information database:
Search only within the INRMM-MiD publication records:
Full-text and abstracts of the publications indexed by the INRMM meta-information database are copyrighted by the respective publishers/authors. They are subject to all applicable copyright protection. The conditions of use of each indexed publication is defined by its copyright owner. Please, be aware that the indexed meta-information entirely relies on voluntary work and constitutes a quite incomplete and not homogeneous work-in-progress.
INRMM-MiD was experimentally established by the Maieutike Research Initiative in 2008 and then improved with the help of several volunteers (with a major technical upgrade in 2011). This new integrated interface is operational since 2014.