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Fossil CO2 and GHG emissions of all world countries

G. Janssens-Maenhout, M. Crippa, D. Guizzardi, M. Muntean, E. Schaaf, J. G. J. Olivier, J. A. H. W. Peters, K. M. Schure

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Executive summary.
Policy context ▹ Part of the Paris Agreement is the implementation of a transparency framework to be implemented bottom-up based on the national GHG emission inventories of all Parties reported to the UNFCCC. In addition, 5-yearly global stocktakes are planned from 2023 onwards to monitor emission trends and the efforts of the individual Parties. Reported inventories however neither cover the entire globe, nor the entire time period. The Commission’s in-house Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) estimates anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions for all world countries thereby contributing to enhanced transparency and completing the global picture with time series for each country from 1970 to 2016 for CO2 and until 2012 for the other GHGs. These data provide scientific estimates of GHG emissions for the different Parties and support the role of the European Commission in the climate negotiations at the 23rd Conference of Parties.
Key conclusions ▹ EDGARv4.3.2 is a comprehensive database of anthropogenic emission time series from 1970 until 2016 for CO2 and until 2012 for the other GHGs. All human activities, except large-scale biomass burning and land use, land-use change and forestry are included and the IPCC sectoral classification is used. A consistent bottom-up emissions calculation methodology is applied to all countries, which allows the inventories of different countries to be compared with the same level of detail and data limitations. For developing countries with less strong statistical data infrastructure and experience in reporting, EDGARv4.3.2 can provide information and help to comply with their future inventory requirements. As such EDGARv4.3.2 can complete the emission trends for all countries and contribute to the comprehensive picture needed for the UNFCCC’s global stock take of 2023.
The global GHG emissions trend has increased since the beginning of the 21st century in comparison to the three previous decades, mainly driven by the increase in CO2 emissions from China and the other emerging economies. By comparison, the GHG emissions trend in the EU28 is decreasing due to rather stable CO2 emissions and a smooth continuous reduction in CH4 emissions. Even though the overall uncertainty of global emissions has increased because of the increasing share of GHG emissions from emerging economies, for Europe the uncertainty has decreased because of progress in inventory compilation and the reduction in more uncertain CH4 emissions. The dataset for CO2 was extended until 2016, based on recent energy and product statistics (EDGARv4.3.2_FT2016). This dataset shows that global anthropogenic CO2 emissions are effectively constant for the third year in a row plateauing at 35.8 Gton CO2 in 2016. The 0.3% increase in 2016 from 2015 can be entirely attributed to the extra day as 2016 was a leap year. While CO2 emissions from the US fell by 2.0% in 2016 compared to 2015, there was little change in emissions from China with -0.3% and the EU28 with +0.2%. The EU28 emissions have fallen over the past two decades reaching 3.4 Gton CO2 in 2016, a reduction of 20.8% compared to 1990. Since 2015 the EU share of the global total has remained constant at 9.6% equivalent to 6.8 ton CO2/cap/yr.
Main findings ▹ In 2016, China, US, EU28, India, Russia and Japan, the world’s largest emitters in decreasing order of CO2 emissions, accounted for 51% of the population, 65% of global Gross Domestic Product, 67% of the total primary energy supply and emitted 68% of total global CO2 and circa 65% of total global GHGs. Emissions from international transport (aviation and shipping) contribute another 3% to the total global GHG emissions.
These six countries show different trends: with 2% decreases for US and Russia, a 1% decrease for Japan, constant emissions for China and EU28 and a 5% increase for India. India does not show yet any decoupling of their emissions growth from their economic growth, unlike Brazil, where emissions fell by 6%.
Emissions are increasing in other developing countries: 6% for Indonesia and Malaysia; 9% for Pakistan and 12% for the Philippines. Also in Eurasia emissions grew in Turkey (5%) and Ukraine (8%).
Within the EU28 the trends vary between countries with decreases of 6% for the UK and Bulgaria and of 3% for Greece and Spain, while increases of 5% in Ireland and Denmark and of 4% in Sweden and Finland occurred.
Related and future JRC work ▹ This CO2/GHG booklet provides the background data behind the CO2 reports, which have been published annually by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the European Commission Joint Research Centre. The CO2 report series started in 2009 and provide up-to-date knowledge on the trend of global CO2 emissions.
Quick guide ▹ The GHG emissions presented for all world countries include the emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O of all anthropogenic sectors, excluding large-scale biomass burning and the land use, land-use change and forestry sectors. These emissions were calculated bottom-up using international statistics for the activity data (such as fuel consumption or crops) and IPCC (2006) values for the emission factors. While the uncertainty in CO2 emissions is generally low (below 10%), the uncertainty in CH4 and N2O emissions is much larger. Moreover, while statistical data until 2016 are available for all major CO2 sources, no global agriculture statistics are available yet beyond 2014 and this sector is an important source of CH4 and N2O.

Vol. 107877 (2017), 
Key: INRMM:14466443



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