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Meteorological risk: extra-tropical cyclones, tropical cyclones and convective storms

Thomas Frame, Giles Harrison, Tim Hewson, Nigel Roberts

edited by: Karmen Poljanšek, Montserrat Marín Ferrer, Tom De Groeve, Ian Clark

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The following text is a small excerpt from the original publication. Within the general INRMM-MiD goal of indexing useful meta-information on INRMM related publications, this excerpt is intended as a handy summary of some potentially interesting aspects of the publication. However, the excerpt is surely incomplete and some key aspects may be missing or their correct interpretation may require the full publication to be carefully read. Please, refer to the full publication for any detail.


Conclusions and key messages.
Partnership ▹ Collaboration between forecast providers and end users in real time is essential during DRM, since the interpretation of the available information, the uncertainty associated with it and how this changes as new information becomes available should be made in consultation with qualified meteorologists and National Meteorological Services in particular. Information sharing, particularly observational, impact and warning data across national boundaries in real time, is of key importance. Improvements in forecasts will in part be driven by the interaction between fundamental atmosphere and ocean science with operational forecasting, so continued collaboration between forecasting centres and universities and research centres is crucial.
Knowledge ▹ A greater understanding of how to interpret, utilise and communicate probabilistic forecasts is required. This is particularly important, since future developments in forecasting systems, particularly short-lead-time, high-resolution forecasts at small spatial scales and long-lead-time global forecasts, lead to forecasts that are inherently probabilistic. Collaboration between physical scientists and social scientists may be important to improve the communication of forecast probabilities.
Innovation ▹ Prospects for major extensions of the lead-time thresholds at which we can forecast storms are limited. We should instead expect continued slow but steady extensions of these over the coming years and decades. Improvements in the quality of forecast information for end users will also stem from innovative and improved post-processing of forecast data for the diagnosis of hazardous weather and end user-specific information.

In Science for disaster risk management 2017: knowing better and losing less, Vol. 28034 (2017), pp. 246-256 
Key: INRMM:14445346



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