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New temperature-based models for predicting global solar radiation

Gasser E. Hassan, M. Elsayed Youssef, Zahraa E. Mohamed, Mohamed A. Ali, Ahmed A. Hanafy



Highlights.
New temperature-based models for estimating solar radiation are investigated.
The models are validated against 20-years measured data of global solar radiation.
The new temperature-based model shows the best performance for coastal sites.
The new temperature-based model is more accurate than the sunshine-based models.
The new model is highly applicable with weather temperature forecast techniques.

Abstract. This study presents new ambient-temperature-based models for estimating global solar radiation as alternatives to the widely used sunshine-based models owing to the unavailability of sunshine data at all locations around the world. Seventeen new temperature-based models are established, validated and compared with other three models proposed in the literature (the Annandale, Allen and Goodin models) to estimate the monthly average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface. These models are developed using a 20-year measured dataset of global solar radiation for the case study location (Lat. 30°51′N and long. 29°34′E), and then, the general formulae of the newly suggested models are examined for ten different locations around Egypt. Moreover, the local formulae for the models are established and validated for two coastal locations where the general formulae give inaccurate predictions. Mostly common statistical errors are utilized to evaluate the performance of these models and identify the most accurate model. The obtained results show that the local formula for the most accurate new model provides good predictions for global solar radiation at different locations, especially at coastal sites. Moreover, the local and general formulas of the most accurate temperature-based model also perform better than the two most accurate sunshine-based models from the literature. The quick and accurate estimations of the global solar radiation using this approach can be employed in the design and evaluation of performance for different solar applications.


Applied Energy, Vol. 179 (October 2016), pp. 437-450, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.07.006 
Key: INRMM:14365369

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