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Selection: library 6314 articles 

 

The biomass distribution on Earth

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, No. 25. (19 June 2018), pp. 6506-6511, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1711842115

Abstract

[Significance] The composition of the biosphere is a fundamental question in biology, yet a global quantitative account of the biomass of each taxon is still lacking. We assemble a census of the biomass of all kingdoms of life. This analysis provides a holistic view of the composition of the biosphere and allows us to observe broad patterns over taxonomic categories, geographic locations, and trophic modes. [Abstract] A census of the biomass on Earth is key for understanding the structure and dynamics of the biosphere. ...

 

Extreme heat waves under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

  
Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, No. 5. (01 May 2018), 054006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab827

Abstract

Severe, extreme, and exceptional heat waves, such as those that occurred over the Balkans (2007), France (2003), or Russia (2010), are associated with increased mortality, human discomfort and reduced labour productivity. Based on the results of a very high-resolution global model, we show that, even at 1.5 °C warming, a significant increase in heat wave magnitude is expected over Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. Compared to a 1.5 °C world, under 2 °C warming the frequency of extreme heat waves would double over ...

 

Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5–2 °C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, No. 24. (12 June 2018), pp. 6243-6248, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1718945115

Abstract

[Significance] This study is a multigeneral circulation model, multiscenario modeling exercise developed to quantify the dengue-related health benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5–2.0 °C above preindustrial levels in Latin America and the Caribbean. We estimate the impact of future climate change and population growth on the additional number of dengue cases and provide insights about the regions and periods most likely affected by changes in the length of the transmission season. Here, we show that future climate change may amplify dengue ...

 

Fuzzy set theory for predicting the potential distribution and cost-effective monitoring of invasive species

  
Ecological Modelling, Vol. 316 (2015), pp. 122-132, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.07.034

Abstract

The presence of invasive species has been predicted using species distribution models (SDMs) and presence-only data to assist environmental management. However, SDMs include substantial uncertainty and the lack of absence data hampers the use of probabilistic predictions. A non-statistical theoretical basis able to deal with uncertainty on which to model invasive species distributions with presence-only data is thus needed. Fuzzy set theory satisfies these two requirements but has been little used. This paper proposes a fuzzy modelling approach for predicting invasive ...

 

Fire effects on soil aggregation: a review

  
Earth-Science Reviews, Vol. 109, No. 1-2. (November 2011), pp. 44-60, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2011.08.002

Abstract

[Abstract] Fire can affect soil properties depending on a number of factors including fire severity and soil type. Aggregate stability (AS) refers to soil structure resilience in response to external mechanical forces. Many authors consider soil aggregation to be a parameter reflecting soil health, as it depends on chemical, physical and biological factors. The response of AS to forest fires is complex, since it depends on how fire has affected other related properties such as organic matter content, soil microbiology, water repellency ...

 

Evaluating the performance of different empirical rainfall erosivity (R) factor formulas using sediment yield measurements

  
CATENA, Vol. 169 (October 2018), pp. 195-208, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2018.05.037

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] R-factor calculation method impact on soil erosion modeling [::] Comparative analysis (numerical, spatial) of 9 empirical R-factor formulas [::] RUSLE implementation on a typical mountainous Mediterranean catchment [::] Application on two time scales (annual, multi-annual) per R-factor approximation [::] Indirect validation (per R-factor method modelled against measured sediment yield) [Abstract] The study aims to evaluate the performance of nine empirical rainfall erosivity (R) factor formulas at the Venetikos River catchment, Northwestern Greece. The goal is to select the most appropriate one, for the accurate estimation of ...

 

Development of new open and free multi-temporal global population grids at 250 m resolution

  
In Proceedings of the 19th AGILE International Conference on Geographic Information Science (2016)

Abstract

Global population grids are increasingly required and used for countless applications in analysis, modeling, and policy-making. However, better and comparable global information requires improved geospatial data on population distribution and densities, in particular concerning temporal and spatial resolution and capacity for change assessment. [\n] This paper presents the development of improved global multi-temporal population grids, ...

 

Operating procedure for the production of the global human settlement layer from Landsat data of the epochs 1975, 1990, 2000, and 2014

  
Vol. 27741 EN (2016), https://doi.org/10.2788/253582

Abstract

A new global information baseline describing the spatial evolution of the human settlements in the past 40 years is presented. It is the most spatially global detailed data available today dedicated to human settlements, and it shows the greatest temporal depth. The core processing methodology relies on a new supervised classification paradigm based on symbolic machine learning. The information is extracted from Landsat image records organized in four collections corresponding to the epochs 1975, 1990, 2000, and 2014. The experiment reported ...

 

Analysis of large fires in European Mediterranean landscapes: lessons learned and perspectives

  
Forest Ecology and Management, Vol. 294 (April 2013), pp. 11-22, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2012.10.050

Abstract

[Abstract] Extreme fire events, also referred to as “megafires,” are not uncommon events on a global scale; they tend to happen a steady frequency in different parts of the world, although, at a local or regional scale, they constitute unique and severe fire episodes. Even if there is not a complete agreement on the term, megafires often refers to those fire events that cause catastrophic damages in terms of human casualties, economic losses, or both. In this article we analyze some of ...

 

Avaliação dos incêndios ocorridos entre 14 e 16 de outubro de 2017 em Portugal Continental - Relatório Final

  
(2018)

Abstract

[Excerpt] Os incêndios rurais que afetaram o território continental, nos dias 14, 15 e 16 de outubro de 2017, geraram um novo ambiente caracterizado simultaneamente de consternação, de impotência e de explicitação da fragilidade da nossa organização social. O ano de 2017 foi aliás pleno de episódios consumidores e destrutivos de áreas florestais, desde os incêndios de Pedrógão Grande até aos fogos que atingiram grandes áreas territoriais, afetando não só espaços florestais privados, como também áreas agrícolas, matas nacionais, infraestruturas empresariais, equipamentos municipais, instalações de turismo rural e ...

 

The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming

  
Nature, Vol. 558, No. 7708. (6 June 2018), pp. 41-49, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0181-4

Abstract

The United Nations’ Paris Agreement includes the aim of pursuing efforts to limit global warming to only 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not clear what the resulting climate would look like across the globe and over time. Here we show that trajectories towards a ‘1.5 °C warmer world’ may result in vastly different outcomes at regional scales, owing to variations in the pace and location of climate change and their interactions with society’s mitigation, adaptation and vulnerabilities to climate change. ...

 

The contribution of small collections to species distribution modelling: a case study from Fuireneae (Cyperaceae)

  
Ecological Informatics, Vol. 42 (November 2017), pp. 67-78, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2017.09.009

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] Specimen data from small collections compliment those in large collections. [::] Small collections contribute to a more robust definition of a species habitat. [::] Species distribution models are impacted when small collections data are included. [Abstract] The recent and rapid digitization of biodiversity data from natural history collection (NHC) archives has enriched collections based data repositories; this data continues to inform studies of species' geographic distributions. Here we investigate the relative impact of plant data from small natural history collections (collections with < 100,000 ...

 

Defining the wildland-urban interface

  
Journal of Forestry, Vol. 105, No. 4. (2007), pp. 201-207, https://doi.org/10.1093/jof/105.4.201

Abstract

Federal wildland fire policy in the United States has been substantially revised over the past 10 years and new emphasis has been given to the wildland–urban interface (WUI), which creates a need for information about the WUI's location and extent. We operationalized a policy definition published in the Federal Register (US Department of the Interior [.USDI.] and US Department of Agriculture [.USDA.]), 2001, Urban wildland interface communities within vicinity of federal lands that are at high risk from wildfire. Fed. Regist. ...

 

Mapping Canadian wildland fire interface areas

  
International Journal of Wildland Fire, Vol. 27, No. 1. (2018), 1, https://doi.org/10.1071/wf16221

Abstract

Destruction of human-built structures occurs in the ‘wildland–urban interface’ (WUI) – where homes or other burnable community structures meet with or are interspersed within wildland fuels. To mitigate WUI fires, basic information such as the location of interface areas is required, but such information is not available in Canada. Therefore, in this study, we produced the first national map of WUI in Canada. We also extended the WUI concept to address potentially vulnerable industrial structures and infrastructure that are not traditionally ...

 

Modeling fire ignition patterns in Mediterranean urban interfaces

  
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (17 May 2018), https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-018-1558-5

Abstract

The rapid growth of built-up areas and infrastructure in the Mediterranean environment has resulted in the expansion of urban interfaces where fire can ignite and spread. Within this context, there is a need to understand spatial patterns of ignition distribution and the relative importance of influencing drivers. In response to this need we developed an analysis of fire ignition patterns using human and biophysical explanatory variables by firstly developing two different linear models to assess patterns of fire ignition points in ...

 

Towards a philosophy of academic publishing

  
Educational Philosophy and Theory, Vol. 48, No. 14. (02 November 2016), pp. 1401-1425, https://doi.org/10.1080/00131857.2016.1240987

Abstract

This article is concerned with developing a philosophical approach to a number of significant changes to academic publishing, and specifically the global journal knowledge system wrought by a range of new digital technologies that herald the third age of the journal as an electronic, interactive and mixed-media form of scientific communication. The paper emerges from an Editors' Collective, a small New Zealand-based organisation comprised of editors and reviewers of academic journals mostly in the fields of education and philosophy. The paper ...

 

Land cover mapping from remotely sensed and auxiliary data for harmonized official statistics

  
ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, Vol. 7, No. 4. (21 April 2018), 157, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi7040157

Abstract

This paper describes a general framework alternative to the traditional surveys that are commonly performed to estimate, for statistical purposes, the areal extent of predefined land cover classes across Europe. The framework has been funded by Eurostat and relies on annual land cover mapping and updating from remotely sensed and national GIS-based data followed by area estimation. Map production follows a series of steps, namely data collection, change detection, supervised image classification, rule-based image classification, and map updating/generalization. Land cover area ...

 

Digital badges aim to clear up politics of authorship

  
Nature, Vol. 526, No. 7571. (28 September 2015), pp. 145-146, https://doi.org/10.1038/526145a

Abstract

Machine-readable system seeks to clearly explain who did what for a research paper. [Excerpt] An initiative that uses colourful ‘digital badges’ to denote different contributions to research aims to standardize and simplify the often-fraught business of detailing who did what on a scientific paper. [...] The 14 categories come from a related ‘digital taxonomies’ project, which last year brought together journal editors, funders and researchers to classify authors’ contributions as a set of standard roles. [...] ...

 

Scientists aim to smoke out wildfire impacts

  
Science, Vol. 360, No. 6392. (01 June 2018), pp. 948-949, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.360.6392.948

Abstract

Scientists this summer are taking to the air in an ambitious effort to better understand the chemistry, behavior, and health impacts of wildfire smoke. The flights in an instrument-packed C-130 airplane belonging to the National Science Foundation will be followed in 2019 by flights on a NASA DC-8 research jet by scientists with NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The two planes will fly through plumes of wildfire smoke, with a focus on the western United States, where wildfires ...

 

Geostatistical tools to map the interaction between development aid and indices of need

  
No. 49. (2018)

Abstract

In order to meet and assess progress towards global sustainable development goals (SDGs), an improved understanding of geographic variation in population wellbeing indicators such as health status, wealth and access to resources is crucial, as the equitable and efficient allocation of international aid relies on knowing where funds are needed most. Unfortunately, in many low-income countries, detailed, reliable and timely information on the spatial distribution and characteristics of intended aid recipients are rarely available. Furthermore, lack of information on the past ...

 

The role of the permanent wilting point in controlling the spatial distribution of precipitation

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, No. 22. (29 May 2018), pp. 5692-5697, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1718842115

Abstract

[Significance] One basic distinction between land and ocean is that the land can dry out. We show that this is of fundamental importance for the precipitation distribution over land as it brings precipitation from the precipitating region to the nonprecipitating region. This process prevents the land–atmosphere system from sustaining precipitation over the same region and thus acts against drought or the formation of desert. Paradoxically, although dry atmospheres are known to hamper moist convection, drying the soil to its permanent wilting point ...

 

Non-supervised method for early forest fire detection and rapid mapping

  
In Fifth International Conference on Remote Sensing and Geoinformation of the Environment (RSCy2017), Vol. 10444 (6 September 2017), 104440R, https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2280714

Abstract

Natural hazards are a challenge for the society. Scientific community efforts have been severely increased assessing tasks about prevention and damage mitigation. The most important points to minimize natural hazard damages are monitoring and prevention. This work focuses particularly on forest fires. This phenomenon depends on small-scale factors and fire behavior is strongly related to the local weather. Forest fire spread forecast is a complex task because of the scale of the phenomena, the input data uncertainty and time constraints in ...

 

A global human settlement layer from optical HR/VHR RS data: concept and first results

  
IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, Vol. 6, No. 5. (October 2013), pp. 2102-2131, https://doi.org/10.1109/jstars.2013.2271445

Abstract

A general framework for processing high and very-high resolution imagery in support of a Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) is presented together with a discussion on the results of the first operational test of the production workflow. The test involved the mapping of 24.3 million km2 of the Earth surface spread in four continents, corresponding to an estimated population of 1.3 billion people in 2010. The resolution of the input image data ranges from 0.5 to 10 meters, collected by a ...

 

Environmental heterogeneity explains the genetic structure of continental and Mediterranean populations of Fraxinus angustifolia Vahl

  
PLOS ONE, Vol. 7, No. 8. (8 August 2012), e42764, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0042764

Abstract

Tree species with wide distributions often exhibit different levels of genetic structuring correlated to their environment. However, understanding how environmental heterogeneity influences genetic variation is difficult because the effects of gene flow, drift and selection are confounded. We investigated the genetic variation and its ecological correlates in a wind-pollinated Mediterranean tree species, Fraxinus angustifolia Vahl, within a recognised glacial refugium in Croatia. We sampled 11 populations from environmentally divergent habitats within the Continental and Mediterranean biogeographical regions. We combined genetic data ...

 

Predicting conifer establishment post wildfire in mixed conifer forests of the North American Mediterranean-climate zone

  
Ecosphere, Vol. 7, No. 12. (December 2016), e01609, https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.1609

Abstract

Due to fire suppression policies, timber harvest, and other management practices over the last century, many low‐ to mid‐elevation forests in semiarid parts of the western United States have accumulated high fuel loads and dense, multi‐layered canopies that are dominated by shade‐tolerant and fire‐sensitive conifers. To a great extent, the future status of western US forests will depend on tree species’ responses to patterns and trends in fire activity and fire behavior and postfire management decisions. This is especially the case ...

 

Uncertainty in forecasts of long-run economic growth

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (14 May 2018), 201713628, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1713628115

Abstract

[Significance] This study develops estimates of uncertainty in projections of global and regional per-capita economic growth rates through 2100, comparing estimates from expert forecasts and an econometric approach designed to analyze long-run trends and variability. Estimates from both methods indicate substantially higher uncertainty than is assumed in current studies of climate change impacts, damages, and adaptation. Results from this study suggest a greater than 35% probability that emissions concentrations will exceed those assumed in the most severe of the available climate change ...

 

People in the EU - statistics on demographic changes

  
In Statistics Explained (2017), 41896

Abstract

[Excerpt] This is one of a set of statistical articles that forms Eurostat’s flagship publication People in the EU: who are we and how do we live?; it presents a range of statistics that cover the characteristics of the demographic situation in the European Union (EU). [\n] A paper edition of the publication was released in 2015. In late 2017, a decision was taken to update the online version of the publication (subject to data availability). Readers should note that while many of ...

Visual summary




 

Gully head modelling: a Mediterranean badland case study

  
Earth Surface Processes and Landforms (11 May 2018), https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.4414

Abstract

Predicting the location of gully heads in various environments is an important step towards predicting gully erosion rates. So far, field data collection and modelling of topographic thresholds for gully head development has mainly focussed on gullies that formed in forested areas, rangelands, pastures and cropland. Such information for gullies in badlands however is very scarce. Therefore, this paper aims to extend the database on gully head topographical thresholds through data collection in a badland area and to improve the prediction ...

 

Positive biodiversity-productivity relationships in forests: climate matters

  
Biology Letters, Vol. 14, No. 4. (04 April 2018), 20170747, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2017.0747

Abstract

While it is widely acknowledged that forest biodiversity contributes to climate change mitigation through improved carbon sequestration, conversely how climate affects tree species diversity–forest productivity relationships is still poorly understood. We combined the results of long-term experiments where forest mixtures and corresponding monocultures were compared on the same site to estimate the yield of mixed-species stands at a global scale, and its response to climatic factors. We found positive mixture effects on productivity using a meta-analysis of 126 case studies established ...

 

Valuing nature's contributions to people: the IPBES approach

  
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Vol. 26-27 (June 2017), pp. 7-16, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2016.12.006

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] Nature and its contributions to people’s quality of life are associated with a wide diversity of values. [::] IPBES embraces this diversity of values, as well as the need to integrate and bridge them in its assessments. [::] Uncovering the values of nature’s contributions to people (NCP) can bridge notions of nature and a good quality of life. [::] Transformation towards sustainability requires addressing power relations among different perspectives on the values of NCP. [::] Intrinsic, instrumental and relational values need to be acknowledged ...

 

Distribution maps of forest tree species

  
In ICP Forests Projectlist (2015), 64

Abstract

[Excerpt: Project description] The European Commission, Joint Research Centre, hosts the European Forest Data Centre (EFDAC at http://efdac.jrc.ec.europa.eu ) of the Forest Information System for Europe (FISE). The EFDAC‐FISE platform is envisioned to transparently integrate information referring to forest resources in Europe, including taxa‐specific information. The exercise involves the integration of: [::1] a harmonized collection of reference maps describing the European‐wide distribution of forest tree species along with their habitat suitability (both current and under varying climate change scenarios); [::2] a detailed analysis of the implications that the uncertainties – ...

References

  1. de Rigo, D., Barredo, J. I., Busetto, L., Caudullo, G., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., 2013. Continental-scale living forest biomass and carbon stock: a robust fuzzy ensemble of IPCC Tier 1 maps for Europe. IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology 413, 271-284. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-41151-9_26 , INRMM-MiD:12541209 .
  2. de Rigo, D., Caudullo, G., Busetto, L., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Mar. 2014. Supporting EFSA assessment of the EU environmental suitability for exotic forestry pests: final report. EFSA Supporting Publications 11 (3),
 

First- and second-order conservative remapping schemes for grids in spherical coordinates

  
Monthly Weather Review In Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 127, No. 9. (1 September 1999), pp. 2204-2210, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<2204:fasocr>2.0.co;2

Abstract

Coupling atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface models requires a means for remapping fields between grids in an accurate and conservative manner. A method is described here for computing interpolation weights for first- and second-order conservative remappings. The method is completely general and can be used for any grid on a sphere. ...

 

Has artificial intelligence become alchemy?

  
Science, Vol. 360, No. 6388. (04 May 2018), pp. 478-478, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.360.6388.478

Abstract

Ali Rahimi, a researcher in artificial intelligence (AI) at Google in San Francisco, California, has charged that machine learning algorithms, in which computers learn through trial and error, have become a form of "alchemy." Researchers, he says, do not know why some algorithms work and others don't, nor do they have rigorous criteria for choosing one AI architecture over another. Now, in a paper presented on 30 April at the International Conference on Learning Representations in Vancouver, Canada, Rahimi and his ...

 

Sea-level rise scenarios and coastal risk management

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, No. 3. (1 March 2015), pp. 188-190, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2505

Abstract

The IPCC's global mean sea-level rise scenarios do not necessarily provide the right information for coastal decision-making and risk management. [\n] Global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise is a major concern for coastal managers and society at large. Since 1988, the IPCC has engaged in a strenuous effort to tackle this kind of challenge at the interface of science and practical decision-making. In this role, the IPCC has recently updated its scenarios of GMSL rise with the release of its Fifth Assessment Report ...

 

Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise

  
Nature, Vol. 531, No. 7596. (31 March 2016), pp. 591-597, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17145

Abstract

Polar temperatures over the last several million years have, at times, been slightly warmer than today, yet global mean sea level has been 6–9 metres higher as recently as the Last Interglacial (130,000 to 115,000 years ago) and possibly higher during the Pliocene epoch (about three million years ago). In both cases the Antarctic ice sheet has been implicated as the primary contributor, hinting at its future vulnerability. Here we use a model coupling ice sheet and climate dynamics—including previously underappreciated processes ...

 

Asylum applications respond to temperature fluctuations

  
Science, Vol. 358, No. 6370. (21 December 2017), pp. 1610-1614, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aao0432

Abstract

[Warming stresses developing countries] Weather-induced conflicts in developing countries spill over to developed countries through asylum applications. One approach to estimating the future impacts of climate change is to look at the effects of weather fluctuations. These transient shocks can be interpreted analytically as randomly distributed treatments applied to countries around the world. Missirian and Schlenker analyzed the relation between these localized shocks to agriculture and applications by that country's migrants for asylum in the European Union. When temperatures in the source ...

 

Extreme wildfire events are linked to global-change-type droughts in the northern Mediterranean

  
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 18, No. 3. (16 March 2018), pp. 847-856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-847-2018

Abstract

Increasing drought conditions under global warming are expected to alter the frequency and distribution of large and high-intensity wildfires. However, our understanding of the impact of increasing drought on extreme wildfires events remains incomplete. Here, we analyzed the weather conditions associated with the extreme wildfires events that occurred in Mediterranean France during the exceptionally dry summers of 2003 and 2016. We identified that these fires were related to two distinct shifts in the fire weather space towards fire weather conditions that ...

 

Forest condition in Europe: 2017 technical report of ICP Forests - Report under the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP)

  

Abstract

[Summary] The International Co-operative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests (ICP Forests) is one of the most diverse programmes within the Working Group on Effects (WGE) under the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP). To provide a regular overview of the programme’s activities, the ICP Forests Programme Co-ordinating Centre (PCC) yearly publishes an ICP Forests Technical Report which summarises research highlights and provides an opportunity for all participating countries to report on their national ICP Forests activities. The PCC also invites ...

 

The significance of land cover delineation on soil erosion assessment

  
Environmental Management (2018), pp. 1-20, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-018-1044-3

Abstract

The study aims to evaluate the significance of land cover delineation on soil erosion assessment. To that end, RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) was implemented at the Upper Acheloos River catchment, Western Central Greece, annually and multi-annually for the period 1965–92. The model estimates soil erosion as the linear product of six factors (R, K, LS, C, and P) considering the catchment’s climatic, pedological, topographic, land cover, and anthropogenic characteristics, respectively. The C factor was estimated using six alternative land ...

 

Temperature accelerates the rate fields become forests

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (16 April 2018), 201716665, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1716665115

Abstract

[Significance] The transition of abandoned fields into forests (secondary succession) has long informed ecologists’ understanding of community assembly and species interactions. Intriguingly, rates of secondary succession show a striking latitudinal pattern, with dominance by woody species (>50% cover) taking less than a decade in the southern United States, and up to 60 years in New England. We used a large-scale experimental network to test how multiple drivers (climate, soils, and the identity of dominant species) influence field-to-forest transitions. We found consistent evidence ...

 

Portugal wildfire management in a new era assessing fire risks, resources and reforms

  
(February 2018)

Abstract

[Executive summary] Portugal has one of the highest forest fire risk rankings in Europe. Fire researchers all point to the same combination of contributing factors: shifting demographics with population moving from rural to urban areas, changes in land use with more agricultural and forested areas left unattended and not being maintained, and fragmentation of land ownership patterns that discourage investment in forest management and fire planning. The trend of annual burned area for the last four decades confirms a new level in fire activity in Portugal, despite ...

References

  1. Almeida, J., Relvas, P., Silva, L., Catry, F., Rego, F., Santos, T. 2007. Portuguese lookout towers network optimization using automatic positioning algorithms. In: Proceedings of the 4th International Wildland Fire Conference, 13-17 May, Seville, Spain. https://www.fire.uni-freiburg.de/sevilla-2007/contributions/doc/cd/SESIONES_TEMATICAS/ST4/Almeida_et_al_PORTUGAL.pdf .
  2. Beighley, M., Hyde, A. C., 2009. Systemic risk and Portugal's forest fire defense strategy - An assessment of wildfire management and response capability.
  3. Beighley, M., Quesinberry, M., 2004. USA-Portugal wildland fire technical
 

Assessment and validation of wildfire susceptibility and hazard in Portugal

  
Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, Vol. 10, No. 3. (16 March 2010), pp. 485-497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-485-2010

Abstract

A comprehensive methodology to assess forest fire susceptibility, that uses variables of strong spatial correlation, is presented and applied for the Portuguese mainland. Our study is based on a thirty-year chronological series of burnt areas. The first twenty years (1975–1994) are used for statistical modelling, and the last ten (1995–2004) are used for the independent validation of results. The wildfire affected areas are crossed with a set of independent layers that are assumed to be relevant wildfire conditioning factors: elevation, slope, ...

 

Global MODIS fraction of green vegetation cover for monitoring abrupt and gradual vegetation changes

  
Remote Sensing, Vol. 10, No. 4. (23 April 2018), 653, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10040653

Abstract

The presence and distribution of green vegetation cover in the biosphere are of paramount importance in investigating cause-effect phenomena at the land/atmosphere interface, estimating primary production rates as part of global carbon and water cycle assessments and evaluating soil protection and land use change over time. The fraction of green vegetation cover (FCover) as estimated from satellite observations has already been demonstrated to be an extraordinarily useful product for understanding vegetation cover changes, for supporting ecosystem service assessments over areas with ...

 

Long-term changes of the wildland–urban interface in the Polish Carpathians

  
ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, Vol. 7, No. 4. (01 April 2018), 137, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi7040137

Abstract

The Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI) is the area where houses and wildland vegetation meet or intermingle, which causes many environmental problems. The current WUI is widespread in many regions, but it is unclear how the WUI evolved, especially in regions where both houses and forest cover have increased. Here we compared WUI change in the Polish Carpathians for 1860 and 2013 in two study areas with different land use history. Our western study area experienced gradual forest increase and housing growth over ...

 

Alternative pathways to the 1.5 °C target reduce the need for negative emission technologies

  
Nature Climate Change (13 April 2018), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0119-8

Abstract

Mitigation scenarios that achieve the ambitious targets included in the Paris Agreement typically rely on greenhouse gas emission reductions combined with net carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere, mostly accomplished through large-scale application of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, and afforestation. However, CDR strategies face several difficulties such as reliance on underground CO2 storage and competition for land with food production and biodiversity protection. The question arises whether alternative deep mitigation pathways exist. Here, using an integrated assessment model, ...

 

Mapping the interaction between development aid and stunting in Nigeria

  
In 28th IUSSP International Population Conference (2017)

Abstract

For meeting sustainable development goals (SDGs) an improved understanding of geographic differences in health status, wealth and access to resources is crucial. The equitable and effcient allocation of international aid relies on knowing where funds are needed most. For instance, aid for poverty alleviation or financial access improvement requires knowledge of where the poor are. Unfortunately, detailed, reliable and timely information on the spatial distribution and characteristics of intended aid recipients in many low income countries are rarely available. This lack ...

References

  1. AidData, 2016. Nigeria AIMS geocoded research release, version 1.3.1. In: AidData Datasets. AidData, Williamsburg, VA and Washington, DC. http://aiddata.org/data/nigeria-aims-geocoded-research-release-level-1-v1-3-1 , http://aiddata.org/research-datasets , INRMM-MiD:14546755
  2. Alegana, V. A., Atkinson, P. M., Pezzulo, C., Sorichetta, A., Weiss, D., Bird, T., Erbach-Schoenberg, E., Tatem, A. J., 2015. Fine resolution mapping of population age-structures for health and development applications. Journal of The Royal Society Interface 12 (105), 20150073+. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2015.0073 , INRMM-MiD:14546782
 

Climate-vegetation-fire interactions and feedbacks: trivial detail or major barrier to projecting the future of the Earth system?

  
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 7, No. 6. (1 November 2016), pp. 910-931, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.428

Abstract

Fire is a complex process involving interactions and feedbacks between biological, socioeconomic, and physical drivers across multiple spatial and temporal scales. This complexity limits our ability to incorporate fire into Earth system models and project future fire activity under climate change. Conceptual, empirical, and process models have identified the mechanisms and processes driving fire regimes, and provide a useful basis to consider future fire activity. However, these models generally deal with only one component of fire regimes, fire frequency, and do ...

 

Predicting climate change effects on wildfires requires linking processes across scales

  
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 2, No. 1. (January 2011), pp. 99-112, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.92

Abstract

Accurate process‐based prediction of climate change effects on wildfires requires coupling processes across orders of magnitude of time and space scales, because climate dynamic processes operate at relatively large scales (e.g., hemispherical and centennial), but fire behavior processes operate at relatively small scales (e.g., molecules and microseconds). In this review, we outline some of the current understanding of the processes by which climate/meteorology controls wildfire behavior by focusing on four critical stages of wildfire development: (1) fuel drying, (2) ignition, (3) ...

 

A lightning parameterization for the ECMWF integrated forecasting system

  
Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 144, No. 9. (September 2016), pp. 3057-3075, https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-16-0026.1
Keywords: ecmwf   forecast   lightning   meteorology  

Abstract

A new parameterization able to diagnose lightning flash densities is proposed for the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System, including its tangent-linear and adjoint versions. Total lightning densities are expressed as a function of hydrometeors contents, convective available potential energy, and cloud-base height output by the convective parameterization. Potential future applications range from the computation of NOx emissions by lightning in atmospheric chemistry models, severe convection forecasting, and data assimilation. In this study, a decade-long experiment is used to calibrate the simulated global ...

 

Projected increase in lightning strikes in the United States due to global warming

  
Science, Vol. 346, No. 6211. (13 November 2014), pp. 851-854, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1259100

Abstract

[Abstract] Lightning plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the initiation of wildfires, but the impact of global warming on lightning rates is poorly constrained. Here we propose that the lightning flash rate is proportional to the convective available potential energy (CAPE) times the precipitation rate. Using observations, the product of CAPE and precipitation explains 77% of the variance in the time series of total cloud-to-ground lightning flashes over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Storms convert CAPE times precipitated water ...

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